Scenario Planning: Application of Models. Mike H e a t h, P.E.

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1 Scenari Planning: Applicatin f Mdels Mike H e a t h, P.E.

2 Scenari Planning Re-cap Why scenari-based planning? Because Murphy is alive and well, and has a persnal interest in what we d. Test the resiliency f ur prject identificatin, sequencing, characteristics and plicies. 8 ut f 10 times prject selectin using traditinal prcesses and methdlgies meets the cmmunities needs/gals! BUT, thse ther 2 times are dzies. Helps infrm decisin makers. 2

3 Scenari Planning Applicatin f Mdels What can be cnsidered using mdels? Land Develpment Ppulatin grws in areas that are nt anticipated Emplyment happens in unexpected ways (e.g., lcatin, size r type) Prject develpment ROW acquisitin Envirnmental clearance Funding availability Externalities Bridge failure Regularly ccurring, nn-recurring cngestin Cnstructin happens Prject Types/Characteristics Added capacity (lanes, C/Ds, Managed Lanes) Mdify intersectins Mdify transit characteristics (headways, stp lcatins, rail/bus, park & ride lcatins, etc.) 3

Extensins NLCOG Mbility 2040 Lng-Range Transprtatin Plan» Dwntwn High Grwth

4 Scenari Planning Examples Alam Area MPO MTP» Grwth Scenaris Tri-Lakes Metrplitan Transprtatin Plan» US 270/70 By-Pass (MLK Expressway)» Transit Rute Extensins NLCOG Mbility 2040 Lng-Range Transprtatin Plan» Dwntwn High Grwth Scenari» Transit Oriented Grwth Scenari» Limited Investment Scenari» High Investment Scenari 4

5 AAMPO Scenaris 5

6 Tri-Lakes Metrplitan Transprtatin Plan US 270/70 By-Pass Rad (MLK Expressway) 6

Tri-Lakes Metrplitan Transprtatin Plan US 270/70 By-Pass Rad (MLK Expressway) 7 Ht Springs - Average Delay Traveling Thrugh Dwntwn:» Hwy 7» Park» Grge» Central» Grand» MLK

7 Tri-Lakes Metrplitan Transprtatin Plan US 270/70 By-Pass Rad (MLK Expressway) 7 Ht Springs - Average Delay Traveling Thrugh Dwntwn:» Hwy 7» Park» Grge» Central» Grand» MLK Scenari Average Delay (minutes per vehicles) Freight Cngestin Cst (2010 M$) AM MD PM AM MD PM 2040 NO Build , With Bypass

8 Tri-Lakes Metrplitan Transprtatin Plan Transit Rute Extensins Red Line» 17 m Green Line» 21 m 8

9 Tri-Lakes Metrplitan Transprtatin Plan Transit Rute Extensins Scenari Ppulatin Cverage ¼ Mile Walking Garland Ht Springs Cunty Emplyment Cverage ¼ Mile Walking Ht Springs Garland Cunty Current Rutes 61% 24% 82% 64% Expanded Rutes 73% 38% 90% 77% 9

10 NLCOG Mbility 2040 MTP Dwntwn High Grwth Scenari Ppulatin cncentrated in dwntwn area* Highest increase in delay measures Des nt accunt fr shifts t nnmtrized travel Must be cupled with land-use changes in the dwntwn 10

11 NLCOG Mbility 2040 MTP Transit Oriented Develpment Scenari Ppulatin cncentrated alng transit crridrs* Highest reductin in reginal cngestin index Reginal delay drpped by 8% n highways and 35% n arterials Cautin needed in interpreting results 11

12 NLCOG Mbility 2040 MTP Limited Investment Scenaris Prjects <$50M Fit within the financially cnstrained planning hrizn Increased verall mbility Reduced reginal delay by 4% n highway netwrk Reduced reginal delay by 6% n arterial netwrk 12

13 NLCOG Mbility 2040 MTP High Investment Scenaris Mega Prjects >$50 M Only scenari where reginal VMT increased VHT results are significantly lwer» Mre peple driving» Drivers traveling farther» Traveling at faster speeds Least amunt f reginal increase in reginal delay Induced delay as shwn by the increased VMT HIGH price tag 13

capacity, capability and resurces t respnd Different types f

14 Cnclusins Scenari Planning is nt abut frecasting the future 14 Explre multiple utcmes Prepares yu ahead f time» S yu have the capacity, capability and resurces t respnd Different types f prjects Timing and funding f prjects Infrm the public and decisin makers

15 Cnclusins Scenari planning is a pwerful tl Be careful when yur analyzing and presenting results» Take the time t present the details» Tell peple hw the infrmatin was develped and hw it shuld be used.» Remember, peple hear what they want t hear (especially elected fficials). 15

16 THANK YOU fr yur attentin any questins?

TRANSPORTATION AND PUBLIC HEALTH CLEVELAND, JULY 2017

TRANSPORTATION AND PUBLIC HEALTH CLEVELAND, JULY 2017 HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE State f Ohi Transit Needs Study Jan 2015 Recmmendatin: Establish a cabinet level Human Service Transprtatin Crdinating Cmmittee