EE380K: Computing In Transition

Transcription

1 EE380K: Computing In Transition Nick Tredennick, Technology Analyst Gilder Publishing

2 Semiconductor World Market 2

3 Where Are Semiconductors Headed? Semiconductors Integrated Circuits Computers, Microprocessors Cell Phone??? 2010 $300 M Transistor Radio TV Microwave VCR PC Semiconductor Market 21 February 2008 Nick Tredennick

4 Semiconductor Market: ICs & TTL 21 February 2008 Nick Tredennick

5 Semiconductor Market: Microprocessors 21 February 2008 Nick Tredennick

6 Semiconductor Market: FPGAs 21 February 2008 Nick Tredennick

7 Semiconductor Market: ASSPs 21 February 2008 Nick Tredennick

8 Semiconductor Market: Multiprocessors 21 February 2008 Nick Tredennick

9 Semiconductor Market: ~Today 21 February 2008 Nick Tredennick

10 Semiconductor Market Segments 10

11 Personal Computers 11

12 The Path To The Value PC 12

13 Consumer Mobile Devices 13

14 Performance Computing 14

15 Moore s Law 15

16 Moore s Law: Wafer Yield 37 die/wafer 28 good die Yield: 75% 177 die/wafer 167 good die Yield: 94% Halving dimensions yields 6x good die! 16

17 Top View: Field-Effect Transistor 17

18 Moore s Law: Wafer Size Copyright Intel Corporation 18

19 Intel 4004 Microprocessor 1971 Copyright Intel Corporation 19

20 Moore s Law Microprocessor Chart Copyright 2005 Intel Corporation 20

21 Intel Duo Microprocessor 2007 Copyright Intel Corporation 21 February 2008 Computing In Transition - NT 21

22 Microprocessor Design Effort 2 B Design Cost 2 M 2 K Number of Transistors 22

23 Multitasking Central Processor 23

24 Multiprocessor Design Effort 2 B Design Cost 2 M 2 B 2 K Number of Transistors 24

25 Processor Complexity Multiprocessor Buffet Interconnect Scheme Memory: Size, Distribution, Organization Chip Control, Clocking, Input/Output, 25

26 Multiprocessing Proof of Concept: 300M 26

27 Multiprocessing Proof of Concept: 6B 27

28 Semiconductor Market: ~Today 21 February 2008 Nick Tredennick

29 Reconfigurable Computing Our research revealed that HPRCs can achieve up to four orders of magnitude improvement in performance, up to three orders of magnitude reduction in power consumption, and two orders of magnitude savings in cost and size requirements compared with contemporary microprocessors when running computer-intensive applications based on integer arithmetic. 29

30 FPGA s Semiconductor Market Share 30

31 The Path To The Value Transistor 31

32 Semiconductor Market Development Fixed Resources Fixed Algorithms 194x Computer 1971 Microprocessor Circuit-based Implementation 2003 Value PC Problem solving: becomes programming Instruction-based Implementation Fixed Resources Variable Algorithms Solutions: affordable, adequate, inefficient Entrenched: chips, tools, manufacturers Design Methods: 30-year stall Tethered systems dominate volumes PCs dominate chip development Progress depends on Moore s law Cost Performance 21 February 2008 Nick Tredennick

33 Power Efficiency Fixed Resources Fixed Algorithms Computing In Transition Mobile systems Embedded chips 194x Computer 1971 Microprocessor Circuit-based Implementation 2003 Value PC Problem solving: becomes programming Instruction-based Implementation Fixed Resources Variable Algorithms Solutions: affordable, adequate, inefficient Cost Performance Cost Performance Per Watt 21 February 2008 Nick Tredennick Variable Resources Variable Algorithms Entrenched: chips, tools, manufacturers Design Methods: 30-year stall Generic chips New non-volatile memory, new PLDs Instruction-based processing is inadequate Tethered systems dominate volumes PCs dominate chip development Progress depends on Moore s law

34 Questions? 34

35 Atmospheric CO 2 and Temperature

36 Market Drivers Mobility Proliferation of mobile devices Modularity Modular interfaces ease application development Modular software lowers development effort Ubiquitous access Information anywhere, any time Free access Emerging economies World economic engine engages 2/3 of the world population Industry transformation Electronics invades everything Everything gets an IP address

37 Nutshell Forecast Cost-performance per watt drives future development Continued strong growth (10-15%/year) Driven by ubiquitous mobile devices Driven by demand from emerging economies Driven by industry transformation Holy Grail memory cell emerges Circuit innovation displaces transistor shrinking as industry driver Wafer stacking (3-D circuits) Self-identifying serial interfaces dominate subsystem connections Reconfigurable systems proliferate