«Article Third Quarter 2004 Economic and Financial Statistics Bank of Thailand P13

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1 «Article Third Quarter 2004 Economic and Financial Statistics Bank of Thailand P13

2 «ß πº «Àπ ȵà ߪ» Õ π Ë à π Èπ Õπ ÿπ π 2547 ÿ Õ π Ë à π æ å Õ Àπ ȵà ߪ» ß â ß Èπ Õπ ÿπ π 2547 «23.59 æ π â π Õ å Õ. ß Èπ Õπ π 2547 π«π 0.47 æ π â π Õ å Õ. ªìπ ß ª Ë π ª ß ÕßÕ µ ª Ë π 0.30 æ π â π Õ å Õ. ß π Àπ È ÿ Èß Ë ªìπ ÿ ß πµ µà ߪ» ß π à FCD À Àπ È à π â ªìπµâπ «0.15 æ π â π Õ å Õ. Àπ È ß ª ß â ßÀπ È 0.08 æ π â π Õ å Õ. π Ë Àπ È æ Ë Ÿâ àπ ß π â ª» µà Õπ ª à π â À Õ ß ÿπ πµà ߪ» 0.06 æ π â π Õ å Õ. 1. π π Ààߪ» âµ Àπ ß «Õß âõ Ÿ Àπ ȵà ߪ» Õ π Ëß ªìπ âõ Ÿ Ë â π µ µ À» Õߪ» Ë âõ Ÿ ß à «à Á â À àßõ ËππÕ Àπ Õ ««Àπ ȵà ߪ» à«π «âõ Ÿ À âõ Ÿ ß â π π «âõ Ÿ Õ ß â ßÀπ ȵà ߪ» Õß ÿ Õ π Ë à π Ë Á âõ Ÿ µ Èß µà Èπªï2541 π 𠫪ìπª ÿ µ µ Èß µàªï 2543 ªìπµâπ «πß«π È ªìπ «âõ Ÿ Èπ Õπ ÿπ π 2547 Ëß Õ π πß π º «ßπ È 1.1 Õ µ ««Àπ ȵà ߪ» Õß ÿ Õ π Ë à π ß«Èπ Õπ ÿπ π 2547 ªìπ «àß «Àâ ÿ Õ π Ë à π Ë Àπ ȵà ߪ»À Õ ÿ Ÿâ À Õ πàπ ȵà ߪ»µ ß π ÿ ª Ë π ß πµ µà ߪ» ÿ «π«π 3,045 Èß àß «ß ª å ß π «Èßπ È â µõ ««2,291 ªìπ âõ 75.2 Õß π«π «Ë àßõõ Èß Èπ 1.2 µ «Õ ª âõ Ÿ ë âõ Ÿ «Ë â µõ π«π 2,291 π Õ Àπ ȵà ߪ» ß â ß Èπ Õπ ÿπ π 2547 ËµÕ π «Õ ß â ß Èπ Õπ π 2547 µ «Õ à«âõ Ÿ ÿ π â πàπ ȵà ߪ» ß π ÿ ª Ë π ß πµ µà ߪ» Ë Èπ π à«ß µ Ë 2 ªï 2547 ªìπ ÿ À âõ Ÿ à Õ âõß π Á Õ ª ߺŸâµÕ Õ æ ËÕµ «Õ âõ Ÿ àõπ Ë ª âõ Ÿ Àâ Ÿ µâõßµ ßµ «ªìπ ß ÿ ë À ÿ Õ π Ë à âµõ «π«π 754 â ª âõ Ÿ Àπ ȵà ߪ» â Õ ß â ß ß«Èπ Õπ π 2547 π«à«âõ Ÿ ÿ π â πàπ ȵà ߪ» ß π ÿ ª Ë π ß πµ µà ߪ» Ë Èπ π à«ß µ Ë 2 ªï 2547 æ ËÕÀ Õ ß â ßÀπ È µà ߪ» Èπ Õπ ÿπ π 2547 ªìπ ÿ àπ π ë π «ß«π È ÿ Õ π Ë à Àπ ȵà ߪ» ß â ß «Èπ Õπ π 2547 µà ÿ π â π ß π Ÿâµà ߪ»µ ß π ÿ ª Ë π ß πµ µà ߪ» Ë Èπ π à«ß µ Ë 2 ªï 2547 π«π 8 Á âπ âõ Ÿ ÿ ß à «π«ªìπ Õ ß â ßÀπ ȵà ߪ» Èπ Õπ ÿπ π 2547 ë À ÿ À à Ë à ËÕÕ Ÿà π ÿà «µà π â ß π Ÿâ µà ߪ» π à«ß µ Ë 2 ªï 2547 π«π 96 ß π Ÿâπ â µ ß π ÿ P14 π Ààߪ» µ» ß π µ

3 Article Report on Private Non-Bank External Debt Survey as-end June 2004 At the end of June 2004, private non-bank external debt registered an outstanding amount of US$23.59 billion, a decline from end-march 2004 by US$0.47 billion. Such decline was mostly due to exchange rate valuation changes around US$0.3 billion, net repayments via foreign exchange transaction, Baht denominated transaction, overseas FCD account, debt offset by export revenue, totaling US$0.15 billion and debt restructuring processes by US$0.08 billion. Meanwhile, new borrowings without corresponding foreign currency inflow (transfer for import payment or investment abroad) increased by US$0.06 billion. 1. Introduction Bank of Thailand realizes the significance of private non-bank external debt as crucial information for the authorities to monitor and implement economic policy. Nevertheless, data on private non-bank external debt outstanding cannot be obtained from any other sources but surveys. With this regard, the External Debt Survey Team, Survey Division, Data Management Group has conducted a survey of private non-bank external debt statistics since end- 1998, with the accompanied, quarterly surveys from the year 2000 onwards. The survey results pertaining to the second quarter of 2004 can be summarized as follows: 1.1 Coverage The list of 3,045 private non-bank enterprises registering some financial transactions associated with foreign borrowings, repayments via Foreign Exchange Transaction Form, or external debt outstanding, are eligible to be surveyed at end-june In particular, the survey forms were distributed out via mail (traditional hard copy or floppy diskette) and . Of this, 2,291 enterprises returned the completed survey forms, representing 75.2 percent response rate, accordingly. 1.2 Verification of Survey Method and Data Estimation ë External debt data as end-june 2004 is collected through Form 42 sent to a selected group of private non-bank enterprises. The amount of external debt outstanding as-end June 2004 obtained from the 2,291 respondents would then be subtracted by the as-end March 2004 figure. The differences between the two will be compared with the corresponding actual ùinflow and outflowû records from Foreign Exchange Transaction Form pertaining to each corresponding period. In case any inconsistencies may arise, a cross-checking procedure would be conducted promptly to all related enterprises, mostly via direct telephone call. ë As for the 754 enterprises with no response, a proxy for end-june 2004 debt outstanding figure could be estimated using end-march 2004 outstanding, adjusted by the corresponding new borrowings and subtracting actual repayment records during 2Q 2004, obtained from Foreign Exchange Transaction Form, accordingly. ë As for 8 non-bank enterprises that do not register any external debt outstanding as-end March 2004 but have contracted new borrowings/repayments during April - June 2004, such as-end June 2004 outstanding can be approximated using information from the corresponding Foreign Exchange Transaction Form records. ë As for 96 new enterprises previously not listed in the current survey database system but registered some new borrowings during 2Q 2004, the corresponding debt outstanding (which amounted to US$338.7 million) can also be indirectly derived from Foreign Exchange Transaction Form reports. With this regard, the name of those enterprises would then be instantly updated in our survey database on regular basis and hence be ready for the following surveys, accordingly. ë As for 70 enterprises not captured under the survey Third Quarter 2004 Economic and Financial Statistics Bank of Thailand P15

4 ª Ë π ß πµ µà ߪ» «338.7 â π Õ å Õ. Á âπ âõ Ÿ ËÕ π «â π æ ËÕ ª «º àß «πß«µàõ ª ë à«π Ë à ËÕ π «µà π ß π Ÿâ π à«ß µ Ë 2 ªï 2547 π«π 70 ß πõõ ª ªìπ π«π 72.8 â π Õ å Õ. π ª âõ Ÿ «ß«π È âπ Õ π π«π 30.5 â π Õ å Õ. À Àπ È ß â ß π ª à«π Ë à Á âõ Ÿ â Ë À ÕÕ Ÿà à«π Ë À ÕÕ 42.3 â π Õ å Õ. âπ ª â«âõ Ÿ Inflow π π«π Ë à π 1.3 «ªØ µ ß π Á ««âõ Ÿ «π «âõ Ÿ π µ Èß µà àß Õ Õ ËµÕ Balance Sheet æ ËÕµ «Õ âõ Ÿ (stock) Ë â âõ Ÿ (flow) ß π ÿ ª Ë π ß πµ µà ߪ» µ µ Õ âõ Ÿ ß» æ å π âõ Ÿ â ß π ª «º µ ß ß πº «ªìπ «Èß Èπ 54 «π Ë µ Èß µà«π Ë 2 Æ 2547 ß«π Ë 17 π π π«ßõ Ëπ π Á âõ Ÿ æ ËÕª ª ÿß ÿ æ âõ Ÿ Àπ ȵà ߪ» Àâ Õ ÿ â Ë ÿ Èß àõàπ ȵà ߪ» àπ ß π â ª» µà Õπ ª à π â πµà ߪ» À Õ Ÿâ/ πºà π ß π Ω πµà ߪ» π «ÿ ß««Àπ ȵà ߪ» â µ «À ËÕ ÿ Èß Ë â àß ß ÿπ à â àß ß ÿπ Ë π â π â ÿπ À àê æ ËÕ Õ ß àõàπ È π ß à «À π µ π È â Õ ÿ Ë π â π â ªìπ Ÿ à Ÿß π«π 39 àæ Ÿâ ß π àπ ß π â πõ π È Ë µ ß π π Ààߪ» â ª» ËÕß ß ÿπ πà æ åµà ߪ» ß«π Ë 22 Æ 2546 Õπÿ µ Àâπ µ ÿ ߪ àπ Õß ÿ𠫪 π «µ. Õß ÿπ Õß È ß æ ªìπµâπ ß ÿπ πà æ åµà ߪ» â µâõß ß π π ß ÿπ ß à «Àâ à«π «ÿ ª Ë π ß π ªìπ Õππ Èπ π µ π È â π µ ÿ Ë ß ÿπ πà æ åµà ߪ» ß π â 10 Ëß «Àπ ȵà ߪ» Á âπ âõ Ÿ Ë â ß π ß à «â ªìπ π π «ÈßµàÕ ª â«àπ π 2. ÿªº «Èπ Õπ ÿπ π 2547 ÿ Õ π Ë à π Ë Àπ È µà ߪ» π«π 2,487 Àπ ȵà ߪ» Ë ««âõ Ÿ â «ª âõ Ÿ Àπ È ß â ßµ ß π ÿ ª Ë π ß πµ µà ߪ» ªìπ ß π 23.6 æ π â π Õ å Õ. Õ ÕßÀπ È ÿª â ßπ È ª ÕßÀπ È Õ Àπ ȵà ߪ» ß â ß Èπ Õπ ÿπ π 2547 π«π 23.6 æ π â π Õ å Õ. π ªìπÀπ È ª ß π Ÿâ ß πµ µà ߪ» â Àπ È πµà ߪ» 16.2 æ π â π Õ å Õ. µ Àπ È ÿ ß πµ µà ߪ» (ª Õ â«frn, FRCD, Promissory Note, Bill of Exchange Bonds) 1.8 æ π â π Õ å Õ. Àπ È ß π Ÿâ µ Àπ È ÿ ß π Õ π«π 5.6 æ π â π Õ å Õ. Õ ÿàπ È Õ Àπ È ß â ß «23.6 æ π â π Õ å Õ. π Õ ÿàπ ȵ Ë Ÿâ (Original Maturity) ªìπÀπ È «15.9 æ π â π Õ å Õ. Àπ È Èπ 1.7 æ π â π Õ å Õ. Àπ È Ë à Àπ «π Àπ È Ë π ËÕ «ß Àπ È Ë âõ Ÿ Àπ «π à Ÿ å «6.0 æ π â π Õ å Õ. ªìπ à«π âõ 67.6, ÕßÀπ È µà ߪ» «µ P16 π Ààߪ» µ» ß π µ

5 database but recorded some repayments of US$72.8 million during 2Q 2004, in estimation of the survey data this period, the repayments amounted of US$30.5 million would then be deducted directly from the debt outstanding estimate, under the çnon-traceableé category. Meanwhile, the remaining US$42.3 million would be adjusted by the same inflow amount. 1.3 Timeframe of the Survey The whole survey process encompasses (1) mailing the survey form, (2) receiving the returned form, (3) arranging Balance Sheet to verify the reported (stock) data with the (flow) data from Foreign Exchange Transaction Form reports, (4) inquiring additional information from enterprises by phone, (5) loading data to the survey system, (6) compiling data and producing survey reports along with output tables: with the corresponding survey schedule from July 2 nd 2004 to September 17 th 2004, hence 54 working days altogether. 1.4 Other Data Collection Methods The External Debt Survey Team further expands survey database coverage toward those possible external debt items which do not have corresponding actual foreign currency inflow but transferred for payments of goods or recorded the borrowings/repayments via overseas FCD account transfer. With this regard, the External Debt Survey Team has checked with the 39 large enterprises both with and without BOIûs investment promotion campaign approval, but registering some capital goods imports. Regarding this, no such item was found. In addition, according to the Notification of Financial Markets Operations Group, Bank of Thailand, subject: The Investment in Foreign Equity, (dated: 22 July 2003), the new regulation allows some type of juristic entities such as mutual fund, insurance company, provident fund and Government Pension Fund(GPF), to invest in foreign equity, but under the condition that they are subjected to report the investment status to the Competent Officer of Exchange Control on monthly basis. During this quarter, there are 10 juristic entities registered such activities. While the names would also be updated in our survey database, accordingly. 2. Survey Results Summary As-end June 2004, 2,487 non-bank enterprises registering the external debt outstanding amount US$23.6 billion. The data is collected through the survey with some adjustments by corresponding Foreign Exchange Transaction records. Details of the external debt outstanding can be summarized as follows: Instrument Type Private non-bank sectorûs external debt outstanding stood around US$23.6 billion. This amount comprises foreign currency denominated loans (from foreign creditors) totaling US$16.2 billion, debt instruments (including FRN, FRCD, P/N, B/E and Bonds) of US$1.8 billion while the remaining US$5.6 billion are in the form of Baht denominated loans and debt securities. Maturity Regarding original maturity breakdown, long term external debt outstanding registers US$15.9 billion while short term debt amounts to US$1.7 billion. Meanwhile, the ùat callû, ùno ageû maturity and ùincomplete due dateû debt totals US$6.0 billion, hence representing 67.6, 7.0 and 25.4 percent of total external debt, respectively. Third Quarter 2004 Economic and Financial Statistics Bank of Thailand P17

6 À Õ ÕßÀπ ȵà ߪ» Èπ Õπ ÿπ π 2547 π µ ª ß π Ÿâ Õ ÿàπ È Õ µ Õ È ÿ ß π ª» â Àπ È Ÿ â µ ß ÿªº «π â ß ππ È 3. ª âõ Ÿ Àπ ȵà ߪ» Õ π Ë à π Èπ Õπ π 2547 Èπ Õπ ÿπ π 2547 âõ Ÿ Àπ ȵà ߪ» Õß Õ π Ë à π Èπ Õπ ÿπ π 2547 Ë «Á âõ Ÿ â π«π æ π â π Õ å Õ. ß Àπ È ß â ß Èπ Õπ π 2547 π«π 0.47 æ π â π Õ å Õ. ª Ë π ª ß ÕßÀπ È π à«ß µ Ë 2 ªï 2547 π Õ â ßπ È Àπà«: æ π â π Õ å Õ. Àπ ȵà ߪ» ß «-0.47 π ªìπ Ÿâ ÿ µ ß π ÿ ª Ë π ß πµ µà ߪ» (.µ ) Àπ È Ë ª Ë π ª ß Õ µ ª Ë π Àπ È Ë æ Ë Èπ ß π Ÿâ Ë àπ ß π â Àπ È Ë ß ª ß â ßÀπ È Õ Ëπ Ê * Õ µ Õ È Ë Õ µ Õ È Ë Õß Ÿâ ß π µà ߪ» ÿª â ßµ ß â π È ª Õ È πè Àπ ( âõ ) Õ µ Õ È ( âõ ) FIXED RATE LIBOR SIBOR BIBOR TIBOR Õ ËπÊ NON-INTEREST « * Õ À Àπ È à π â π ß π Ÿâ â«ß π 𪻠πºà π FCD ªìπµâπ πõ π È ß «ª æ Ë Inflow Àâ Õ âõß âõ Ÿ Õß ÿ Ë Outflow µà à â π âõ Ÿ Inflow πõ µ π«π 0.04 æ π â π Õ å Õ. π π 2547 «Àπ ȵà ߪ» à«π «âõ Ÿ À âõ Ÿ P18 π Ààߪ» µ» ß π µ

7 For more details regarding external debt statistics as-end June 2004, classified by loan type, maturity, interest rate, currency as well as by location, please see the attached summary tables. 3. External Debt Comparison As-end June 2004, private non-bank external debt outstanding data obtained from the survey database amounted to US$23.59 billion, representing US$0.47 billion decline from end-march 2004 outstanding amount, accordingly. As for all external debt changes during 2Q 2004, the details could be summarized as follows: Billion of US$ Total external debt decline of which : ë Net borrowings as shown in Foreign Exchange Transaction Form (Previous: F.T and F.T.40) ë Exchange rate valuation changes ë Debt increase, from new borrowings without actual corresponding foreign currency inflow ë Debt decrease, from debt restructuring ë Debt decrease from other reasons* Average Interest rates The details of the average interest rates associated with external borrowings could be tabulated as follows: Interest Rate Type Weight (percent) Interest Rate (percent per annum) Fixed Rate LIBOR SIBOR BIBOR TIBOR Others Non-Interest Total * This includes debt offset by exports revenue, debt repayment (locally) via Thai Baht, overseas FCD account transfer and including inflow adjustments (pertaining to those companies, which registered some outflow transactions during the current period but without corresponding inflows during preceding periods, amounting US$0.04 billion.)* September 2004 External Debt Survey Team Survey Division Data Management Group Third Quarter 2004 Economic and Financial Statistics Bank of Thailand P19

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