«Article First Quarter 2005 Economic and Financial Statistics Bank of Thailand P13

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1 «Article First Quarter 2005 Economic and Financial Statistics Bank of Thailand P13

2 «ß πº «Àπ ȵà ߪ» Õ π Ë à π Èπ Õπ π«2547 P14 Èπ Õπ π«2547 ÿ Õ π Ë à π æ å Àπ ȵà ߪ» ß â ß Èß Èπ «24.4 æ π â π Õ å Õ. æ Ë Èπ Èπ Õπ π π 2547 π«π 0.7 æ π â π Õ å Õ. ªìπ æ Ë Èπ ª Ë π ª ß ÕßÕ µ ª Ë π ß 0.7 æ π â π Õ å Õ. Àπ È æ Ë Èπ ÿ Ÿâ ÿ Èß ß πµ µà ߪ» ß π à ºà π FCD À Àπ È à π â Ÿâ àπ ß π â ª» µà Õπ ª à π â À Õ ß ÿπ πµà ߪ» ªìπµâπ π«π 0.2 æ π â π Õ å Õ. π Ë Àπ È ß ª ß â ßÀπ È π«π 0.2 æ π â π Õ å Õ. 1. π π Ààߪ» â π π «âõ Ÿ Àπ ȵà ß ª» Õß ÿ Õ π Ë à π ªìπª ÿ µ µ Èß µà ªï 2543 ªìπµâπ â««àß Õ ª ߺŸâª Õ Ë Àπ ȵà ߪ» À Õ ÿ ª Ë π ß π Ë Ë «π ËÕß Ÿâ µà ߪ» ÿ âõ Ÿ Àπ ȵà ߪ» Õ π Ë â «Õ ªìπ âõ Ÿ Ë â π Àπ π ß π Õߪ» À «âõ Ÿ ß«Èπ Õπ π«2547 Õ π πß π º «ßπ È 1.1 Õ µ ««Àπ ȵà ߪ» Õß ÿ Õ π Ë à π ß«Èπ Õπ π«2547 ªìπ «àß «Àâ ÿ Õ π Ë à π Ë Àπ ȵà ߪ»À Õ ÿ Ÿâ À Õ πàπ ȵà ߪ» ( à «Àπ È π ËÕ â ) µ ß π ÿ ª Ë π ß πµ µà ߪ» 1 ÿ «π«π 2,665 â µõ ««2,179 ªìπ âõ 81.8 Õß π«π «Ë àßõõ Èß Èπ 1.2 µ «Õ ª âõ Ÿ ë âõ Ÿ «Ë â µõ π«π 2,179 â π Õ Àπ ȵà ߪ» ß â ß Èπ Õπ π«2547 Ë µõ π «Õ ß â ß Èπ Õπ π π 2547 µ «Õ à«âõ Ÿ ÿ π â πàπ ȵà ߪ» ß π ÿ ª Ë π ß πµ µà ߪ» Ë Èπ π à«ß µ Ë 4 ªï 2547 ªìπ ÿ À âõ Ÿ à Õ âõß π Á Õ ª ߺŸâµÕ «æ ËÕµ «Õ âõ Ÿ àõπ Ë ª âõ Ÿ Àâ Ÿ µâõßµ ßµ «ªìπ ß ÿ 1/ ë À ÿ Õ π Ë à âµõ «Ë µ µàõ à â Á â ª âõ Ÿ Àπ ȵà ߪ» â Õ ß â ß ß«Èπ Õπ π π 2547 π«à«âõ Ÿ ÿ π â πàπ ȵà ߪ» ß π ÿ ª Ë π ß πµ µà ߪ» Ë Èπ π à«ß µ Ë 4 ªï 2547 æ ËÕÀ Õ ß â ßÀπ È µà ߪ» Èπ Õπ π«2547 ªìπ ÿ àπ π ë π «ß«π È ÿ Õ π Ë à Àπ ȵà ߪ» ß â ß «Èπ Õπ π π 2547 µà ÿ π â π ß π Ÿâµà ߪ»µ ß π ÿ ª Ë π ß πµ µà ߪ» Ë Èπ π à«ß µ Ë 4 ªï 2547 π«π 4 Á âπ âõ Ÿ ÿ ß à «π«ªìπ Õ ß â ßÀπ ȵà ߪ» Èπ Õπ π«2547 ë À ÿ À à Ë à ËÕÕ Ÿà π ÿà «µà π â ß π Ÿâ µà ߪ» π à«ß µ Ë 4 ªï 2547 π«π 123 ß π Ÿâπ â µ ß π ÿ ª Ë π ß πµ µà ߪ» «0.1 æ π â π Õ å Õ. Á â π âõ Ÿ ËÕ π «â π æ ËÕª «º àß «πß«µàõ ª µ Èß µà 1 π 2547 ªìπµâπ ª ª. â ª Ÿª «àß ß π µ. ªìπ àß ß π π Ÿª ÿ âõ Ÿ (Data Set) ßÕ Á Õπ å π Ààߪ» µ» ß π µ

3 Article Report on Private Non-Bank External Debt Survey as-end December 2004 At the end of December 2004, private non-bank external debt outstanding stood at US$24.4 billion, a substantial increase from end-september 2004 outstanding by US$0.7 billion. This was mainly due to the increase of exchange rate valuation of US$0.7 billion, net borrowings via both foreign exchange and Baht denominated transaction, overseas FCD account transfer, payment in-kind by exports revenue as well as new borrowings without actual corresponding foreign currency inflows (i.e., transfer for import payment or investment abroad) caused the external debt to rise by US$0.2 billion. Meanwhile, the reduction in external debt resulted from debt restructuring processes amounted of US$0.2 billion. 1. Introduction Private non-bank external debt survey statistics is considered as crucial information input for the authorities to monitor and implement economic policy. With this regard, the Bank of Thailand, by the External Debt Survey Team, Survey Division, Data Management Department, has conducted survey of private non-bank external debt statistics on quarterly basis since the year The sampling units encompass selected enterprises, which registered external debt outstanding or foreign exchange transactions associated with foreign borrowings. The survey results pertaining to the fourth quarter of 2004 can be summarized as follows: 1.1 Coverage There are 2,665 private non-bank enterprises eligible for the survey at end-december They are companies which register either financial transactions associated with foreign borrowings, repayments via ITRS 1 (excluding trade credits) or external debt outstanding. The survey was conducted during January-March In particular, the survey forms were distributed out via mail (traditional hard copy or floppy diskette) and . Of this, 2,179 enterprises completed and returned the forms, representing 81.8 percent response rate, accordingly. 1.2 Survey Method and Data Estimation ë External debt data as end-december 2004 is collected through Form 42 sent to a selected group of private non-bank enterprises. The amount of external debt outstanding as-end December 2004 obtained from the 2,179 respondents would then be subtracted by 1/ the as-end September 2004 figure. The differences between the two will be compared with the corresponding actual ùinflow and outflowû records from ITRS pertaining to each corresponding period. In case any inconsistencies may arise, a crosschecking procedure would be conducted promptly to all related enterprises, mostly via direct telephone call. ë As for the enterprises with no response and no contacting address, a proxy for end-december 2004 figure could be proxied using end-september 2004 outstanding, adjusted by the corresponding new borrowings and subtracted actual repayment records during 4Q 2004, obtained from ITRS, accordingly. ë As for 4 non-bank enterprises that do not register any external debt outstanding as-end September 2004 but have contracted new borrowings/repayments during October - December 2004, such as-end December 2004 outstanding can be approximated using information from the corresponding ITRS records. ë As for 123 new enterprises previously not listed in the current survey database system but registered some new borrowings during 4Q 2004, the corresponding Starting from April 1, 2004, data previously reported in FT. forms by financial institutions has been replaced by çdatasetsé submitted electronically. First Quarter 2005 Economic and Financial Statistics Bank of Thailand P15

4 ë à«π Ë à ËÕ π «µà π ß π Ÿâ π à«ß µ Ë 4 ªï 2547 π«π 62 ß π ÕÕ ª ªìπ π«π 0.03 æ π â π Õ å Õ. Á â ª âõ Ÿ «ß«π È ª æ Ë âõ Ÿ Inflow π π«π Ë à π â ª πß«««ππ È 1.3 «π πß π ««π «âõ Ÿ π µ Èß µà àß Õ Õ ËµÕ Balance Sheet æ ËÕµ «Õ âõ Ÿ (stock) Ë â âõ Ÿ (flow) ß π ÿ ª Ë π ß πµ µà ߪ» µ µ Õ âõ Ÿ ß» æ å π âõ Ÿ â ß π ª «º µ ß ß πº «Ë µ Èß µà«π Ë 4 ß«π Ë 15 π 2548 «Èß Èπ 50 «π 1.4 π«ßõ Ëπ π Á âõ Ÿ π ª âõ Ÿ Àπ ȵà ߪ» Õß ÿ Ë àµõ «À Õ ÿ Ë à âõ Ÿà π ËÕ «âõ Ÿ Õ Á â à â«π π ËÕß Õ ÿ Ë àª Ø π ß π ÿ ª Ë π ß πµ µà ߪ» Õ àπ Ÿâ à π ß π â ª» µà Õπ ª à π â πµà ߪ» ªìπµâπ π «ÿ ß««Àπ ȵà ߪ» â µ «À ËÕ ÿ Èß Ë â àß ß ÿπ à â àß ß ÿπ Ë π â π â ÿπ À àê Õ ß àõàπ È π ß à «À π µ π È â Õ ÿ Ë π â π â ªìπ Ÿ à Ÿß π«π 25 àæ Ÿâ ß π àπ ß π â ª» µà Õ à ß 2. ÿªº «Èπ Õπ π«2547 ÿ Õ π Ë à π Ë Àπ È µà ߪ» ( à «Àπ È π ËÕ â ) π«π 2,592 Àπ ȵà ß ª» Ë ««âõ Ÿ â «ª âõ Ÿ Àπ È ß â ßµ ß π ÿ ª Ë π ß πµ µà ߪ» ªìπ ß π 24.4 æ π â π Õ å Õ. Õ ÕßÀπ È ÿª â ßπ È ª ÕßÀπ ȵà ߪ» Õ Àπ ȵà ߪ» ß â ß Èπ Õπ π«2547 π«π 24.4 æ π â π Õ å Õ. π ªìπÀπ Ȫ ß π Ÿâ ß πµ µà ߪ» â Àπ È πµà ߪ» 16.4 æ π â π Õ å Õ. µ Àπ È ÿ ß πµ µà ߪ» (ª Õ â«frn, FRCD, Promissory Note, Bill of Exchange Bonds) 1.7 æ π â π Õ å Õ. Àπ È ß π Ÿâ µ Àπ È ÿ ß π Õ π«π 6.3 æ π â π Õ å Õ. Õ ÿàπ È π Õ ÿàπ ȵ Ë Ÿâ (Original Maturity) ªìπÀπ È «16.3 æ π â π Õ å Õ. Àπ È Èπ 1.5 æ π â π Õ å Õ. Àπ È Ë à Àπ «π Àπ È Ë π ËÕ «ß Àπ È Ë âõ Ÿ Àπ «π à Ÿ å «6.6 æ π â π Õ å Õ. ªìπ à«π âõ 66.9, ÕßÀπ ȵà ߪ» «µ P16 π Ààߪ» µ» ß π µ

5 debt outstanding (which amounted to US$0.1 billion) can be indirectly derived from ITRS reports. With this regard, the name of those enterprises would be instantly updated in our survey database and hence be ready for the following surveys, accordingly. ë As for 62 enterprises not captured under the survey database but recorded some repayments of US$0.03 billion during 4Q 2004, in estimation of the survey data this period, those outflow amount would be added by the same inflow amount. 1.3 Timeframe of the Survey The whole survey process encompasses (1) mailing the survey form, (2) receiving the returned form, (3) arranging Balance Sheet to verify the reported (stock) data with the (flow) data from ITRS reports, (4) inquiring additional information from enterprises by phone, (5) loading data to the survey system, (6) compiling data and producing survey reports along with output tables: with the corresponding survey schedule from January 4 th 2005 to March 15 th 2005, covering 50 working days altogether. 1.4 Other Data Collection Methods In estimation of external debt outstanding of those enterprises that do not return the survey form or the enterprises not listed in the current survey database, certain data could not be captured under ITRS; for instance, new borrowings without corresponding foreign currency inflow but transferred for payments of goods. In addition, the External Debt Survey Team has regularly checked with the enterprises who have been granted the BOIûs investment promotion privileges while also registering some capital goods imports. During this period, 25 enterprises were checked but no evidence regarding such borrowings without inflow was found. 2. Survey Results Summary As-end December 2004, 2,592 non-bank enterprises register the external debt outstanding amount US$24.4 billion (excluding trade credits). The data is collected through the survey with some adjustments by corresponding ITRS records. Details of the external debt outstanding can be summarized as follows: Instrument Type Private non-bank sectorûs external debt outstanding stood around US$24.4 billion. This amount comprises foreign currency denominated loans (from foreign creditors) totaling US$16.4 billion, debt instruments (including FRN, FRCD, Promissory Note, Bill of Exchange and Bonds) of US$1.7 billion while the remaining US$6.3 billion are in the form of Baht denominated loans and debt securities. Maturity Regarding original maturity breakdown, long term external debt outstanding registers US$16.3 billion while short term debt amounts to US$1.5 billion. Meanwhile, the ùat callû, ùno ageû maturity and ùincomplete due dateû debt totals US$6.6 billion, hence representing 66.9, 6.0 and 27.1 percent of total external debt, respectively. First Quarter 2005 Economic and Financial Statistics Bank of Thailand P17

6 À Õ ÕßÀπ ȵà ߪ» Èπ Õπ π«2547 π µ ª ß π Ÿâ Õ ÿàπ È Õ µ Õ È ÿ ß π ª» â Àπ È Ÿ â µ ß ÿªº «π â ß ππ È 3. ª âõ Ÿ Àπ ȵà ߪ» Õ π Ë à π Èπ Õπ π π 2547 Èπ Õπ π«2547 âõ Ÿ Àπ ȵà ߪ» Õß Õ π Ë à π Èπ Õπ π«2547 Ë «Á âõ Ÿ â π«π 24.4 æ π â π Õ å Õ. æ Ë Èπ Àπ È ß â ß Èπ Õπ π π 2547 π«π 0.7 æ π â π Õ å Õ. à«π À à ªìπº ª Ë π ª ß ÕßÕ µ ª Ë πµàõ Õ å Õ. Õß ß π ÿ À Ë Áß à Èπ ÿ ÿ Èßπ È ª Ë π ª ß ÕßÀπ È π à«ß µ Ë 4 ªï 2547 π Õ â ßπ È Àπà«: æ π â π Õ å Õ. Àπ ȵà ߪ» æ Ë Èπ «+0.70 π ªìπ Ÿâ ÿ µ ß π ÿ ª Ë π ß π (.µ µ. 40 ) Àπ È Ë ª Ë π ª ß Õ µ ª Ë π Àπ È Ë æ Ë Èπ ß π Ÿâ Ë àπ ß π â Àπ È Ë ß ª ß â ßÀπ È Õ Ëπ Ê * Õ µ Õ È Õ µ Õ È Ë Õß Ÿâ ß π µà ß ª» ÿª â ßπ È * Õ À Àπ È à π â π ß π Ÿâ â«ß π 𪻠πºà π FCD πµà ߪ» ªìπµâπ ª æ Ë Inflow Àâ Õ âõß âõ Ÿ Õß ÿ Ë Outflow µà à â π âõ Ÿ Inflow πõ µ Ëß πß«π È π«π 0.03 æ π â π Õ å Õ. π 2548 «Àπ ȵà ߪ» à«π «âõ Ÿ ΩÉ À âõ Ÿ âõ π» P18 π Ààߪ» µ» ß π µ

7 For more details regarding external debt statistics as-end December 2004, classified by loan type, maturity, interest rate, currency as well as by location, please see the attached summary tables. 3. External Debt Comparison As-end December 2004, private non-bank external debt outstanding data obtained from the survey database amounted to US$24.4 billion, representing US$0.7 billion increase from end-september 2004 outstanding, accordingly. This was attributable to an appreciation of major currencies compared with the US dollar. As for all external debt changes during 4Q 2004, the details could be summarized as follows: US$ Billion Total external debt increase of which : ë Net borrowings as shown in Foreign Exchange Transaction Form (Previous: F.T and F.T.40) ë Exchange rate valuation changes ë Debt increase, from new borrowings without actual corresponding foreign currency inflow ë Debt decrease, from debt restructuring ë Debt decrease, from other reasons* Average Interest rates The details of the average interest rates associated with external borrowings could be tabulated as follows: * Including payment in-kind by exports revenue, debt repayment (locally) via Thai Baht, overseas FCD account transfer including inflow adjustments (pertaining to those companies, which registered some outflow transactions during the current period without corresponding inflows during preceding periods, amounting US$0.03 billion.)* March 2005 External Debt Survey Team Survey Division Data Management Department Information Technology Group First Quarter 2005 Economic and Financial Statistics Bank of Thailand P19

8 P20 π Ààߪ» µ» ß π µ

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10 P22 π Ààߪ» µ» ß π µ

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12 P24 π Ààߪ» µ» ß π µ

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14 P26 π Ààߪ» µ» ß π µ