Equipment Market Segmentation

Transcription

1 Global Economic Symposium Equipment Market Segmentation Robert Wright July 14, 2000

2 Equipment Market Segmentation Static Models Equipment capital - Single Fab Product & Technology node breakout 130nm Equipment Market (# of tools) Cost Resource Model Contributions Modeling Assumptions 200mm Equipment Annual equipment capital $: OIC (asic), LEL (mpu), LEM (dram) Equipment Segmentation 300mm Equipment Annual equipment capital $: OIC, LEL, LEM Equipment Segmentation 07/19/2000 5:09 PM j:\stndpres\template\intst.ppt - 2

3 130nm 300mm static model (single fab) LEL Fab Equipment Capital Equipment Capital calculation: Required Tools $939,500K Additional Tools $187,900K Installation $169,110K Total Capital $1,296,510K Equipment Group Segmentation Lithography $487M Interconnect $255M Furnace/Implant $ 63M 07/19/2000 5:09 PM j:\stndpres\template\intst.ppt - 3

4 Equipment Capital per FAB ($M) Product & Technology Node breakout Scenario A (ITRS) Mature Manufacturing Year Technology Node (nm) LEM 200MM MM 1,398 1,653 2,007 LEL 200MM MM 1,297 1,656 1,913 OIC 200MM MM 1,215 1,553 1,733 07/19/2000 5:09 PM j:\stndpres\template\intst.ppt - 4

5 Cost Resource Model contributions Tool Requiremen Fab Total Product Cost Wafer Cost by Tool Group Wafer Tool ID Tools Capital Product Factor Cost Cost Factor $ CMP_Ins(C)_F 2 5, _Cu_33 Tool Depreciation 1,137 Litho_248 Tool Depreciation 403 CMP_Ins_F 2 5, _Cu_33 Tool Maintenance 398 Litho_248 Tool Maintenance 141 CMP_Met 8 20, _Cu_33 Direct Personnel 151 Litho_248 Tool Leasing 0 CMP_Met_F 1 2, _Cu_33 Indirect Personnel 88 Litho_248 Direct Personnel 30 CVD_Ins(C)_F 3 10, _Cu_33 Direct Space 221 Litho_248 Indirect Personnel 15 CVD_Ins 2 7, _Cu_33 Indirect Space 8 Litho_248 Direct Space 44 CVD_Ins_F 1 3, _Cu_33 Direct Material 662 Tool Sum econmod2 Fab Litho_248 Indirect Space 1 CVD_Ins_Thin 5 12, _Cu_33 Indirect Material 278 Category Factor FY01 Litho_248 Direct Material 37 CVD_Met(C)_F 1 4, _Cu_33 Total Wafer Cost 2,943 Capital (K$) Req d Tools 939,500 Litho_248 Indirect Material 27 CVD_MetW(C)_F 1 4,000 Capital (K$) Add l Tools 187,900 Litho_248 Group Total 698 CVD_Met 7 28,000 Capital (K$) Installation 169,110 CMP Tool Depreciation 39 Dry_Etch(A)_F 2 7,000 Capital (K Total 1,296,510 CMP Tool Maintenance 14 Dry_Etch(C)_F 2 7,000 Space Summary econmod2 Fab Expense (K$ Maintenance 90,756 CMP Tool Leasing 0 Dry_Etch 17 59,500 Category Space Type FY01 Expense (K$ Depreciation 259,302 CMP Direct Personnel 10 Dry_Etch_F 4 14,000 Required (Sq Ft) Clean Room 92,980 Expense (K$ Total 350,058 CMP Indirect Personnel 4 Dry_Strip_F 2 2,000 Required (Sq Ft) Non Clean Room 371,920 CMP Direct Space 15 Dry_Strip 1 1,000 Required (Sq Ft) Non Manufacturing 31,200 CMP Indirect Space 0 Dry_Strip_F 1 1,000 Required (Sq Ft) Total 496,100 CMP Direct Material 0 Dry_Strip_F 4 4,000 Specified (Sq Ft) Clean Room 92,980 CMP Indirect Material 33 Electroplate 5 12,500 Specified (Sq Ft) Non Clean Room 371,920 CMP Group Total 116 Furn_FastRmp_F 4 6,000 Specified (Sq Ft) Non Manufacturing 31,200 Etch Tool Depreciation 106 Furn_Nitr 6 9,000 Specified (Sq Ft) Total 496,100 Etch Tool Maintenance 37 Furn_Nitr_F 2 3,000 Occupancy (Sq Ft) Clean Room 16,272 Etch Tool Leasing 0 Furn_OxAn 8 12,000 Occupancy (Sq Ft) Non Clean Room 18,596 Etch Direct Personnel 12 Furn_OxAn_F 1 1,500 Occupancy (Sq Ft) Non Manufacturing 1,560 Etch Indirect Personnel 9 Furn_Poly_F 2 3,000 Occupancy (K$) Total 36,428 Etch Direct Space 24 Furn_TEOS_F 2 3,000 Capital (K$) Building 395,976 Etch Indirect Space 1 Implant_HiE_F 1 4,000 Depreciation (K$) Building 15,839 Etch Direct Material 0 Implant_LoE_F 3 9,000 Etch Indirect Material 39 Insp_PLY 7 24,500 Etch Group Total /19/2000 5:09 PM j:\stndpres\template\intst.ppt - 5

6 Wafer Cost $ Product & Technology Node breakout Mature Manufacturing Year Technology Node (nm) LEM 200MM 1,331 1,647 1,682 1, MM 3,008 3,418 3,956 LEL 200MM 1,395 1,564 1,682 2, MM 2,943 3,562 3,998 OIC 200MM 1,404 1,690 1,847 2, MM 2,963 3,677 4,077 07/19/2000 5:09 PM j:\stndpres\template\intst.ppt - 6

7 Fab Equipment Demand 130nm LEL Scenario A NEW Fabs UPGRADE UPGRADE _Cu_33 Capital Expense per year 4,549,640 6,423,129 7,680,562 7,149,038 9,798,234 2,196,956 Tool Requirements Tools by Cumulative Tool ID FAB Capital CMP_Ins(C)_F CMP_Ins_F CMP_Met CMP_Met_F CVD_Ins(C)_F CVD_Ins CVD_Ins_F CVD_Ins_Thin CVD_Met(C)_F CVD_MetW(C)_F CVD_Met Dry_Etch(A)_F Dry_Etch(C)_F Dry_Etch Dry_Etch_F Dry_Strip_F Dry_Strip /19/2000 5:09 PM j:\stndpres\template\intst.ppt - 7

8 130nm 300mm LEL Scenario A Equipment Market Segmentation Tool Demand - All Fabs Time CMP CVD Etch/Strip Electroplate Furnace Implant Inspect Lithography LowK_Track Measure RTP 07/19/2000 5:09 PM j:\stndpres\template\intst.ppt - 8

9 Process Complexity Node, nm Logic product Interconnect - Technology Al Cu / oxide Cu / low k Cu / low k Cu / low k - # of levels # mask levels - FEOL Interconnect # mask levels - I-Line DUV DUV DUV # mask levels - Total % increase 11% 10% 17% 7% 07/19/2000 5:09 PM j:\stndpres\template\intst.ppt - 9

10 Lithography Model Assumptions Tool Purchase Cost ($M) Tool Throughput 200mm 300mm 200mm 300mm I-Line Mask Purchase Cost ($K) Modeled tpt is degraded Mask Life (Wafers per Mask) 157 Critical 40 LEL 4, Binary 30 OIC Critical 28 LEM 10, Binary Critical Binary 11 07/19/2000 5:09 PM j:\stndpres\template\intst.ppt - 10

11 200mm Equipment Capital Scenario A All Products New & Upgrades 40,000 Equipment Capital ($M) 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Time 250nm 180nm 130nm 100nm 07/19/2000 5:09 PM j:\stndpres\template\intst.ppt - 11

12 200mm Equipment Market, Capital $ Scenario A, 130nm LEL Year 2003 (Degraded Case-Litho) 6% CVD / PVD Etch / Strip 2% 41% Furnace/RTP 6% Implant Inspection 12% 1% Lithography LowK Track 21% 6% 4% 1% Measure Test Wet Clean 07/19/2000 5:09 PM j:\stndpres\template\intst.ppt - 12

13 200mm Equipment Capital Scenario B All Products New & Upgrades Equipment Capital ($M) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Time 250nm 180nm 130nm 100nm 07/19/2000 5:09 PM j:\stndpres\template\intst.ppt - 13

14 300mm Equipment Capital by year ($M) Scenario A node (nm) LEL 130 4,550 6,423 7,681 7,149 9,798 2, ,647 21,245 22,685 LEM 130 6,758 9,938 9,667 3,294 5, ,754 29,831 22,598 OIC ,252 1,784 5,366 6, ,693 Total 11,308 16,362 19,600 46,628 71,335 61,091 Equipment ($M) 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, OIC 100 OIC 130 LEM 100 LEM 130 LEL 100 LEL /19/2000 5:09 PM j:\stndpres\template\intst.ppt - 14

15 300mm Equipment Market, Capital $ Scenario A, 130nm LEL Year 2005 (Degraded Case-Litho) CVD / PVD 4% 1% 5% 52% Etch / Strip Furnace/RTP Implant Inspection Lithography 10% 16% 6% 1% 3% 2% LowK Track Measure Test Wet Clean 07/19/2000 5:09 PM j:\stndpres\template\intst.ppt - 15

16 300mm Equipment Market, Capital $ Scenario A, 130nm LEL Year 2005 (Base Case Litho throughput) CVD / PVD 16% 8% 2% 6% 24% Etch / Strip Furnace/RTP Implant Inspection Lithography 26% 9% 2% 4% 3% LowK Track Measure Test Wet Clean 07/19/2000 5:09 PM j:\stndpres\template\intst.ppt - 16

17 300mm Equipment Capital by year ($M) Scenario B 100,000 90,000 Equipment Capital ($M) 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, OIC 70 OIC 100 OIC 130 LEM 70 LEM 100 LEM 130 LEL 70 LEL 100 LEL 130 Time 07/19/2000 5:09 PM j:\stndpres\template\intst.ppt - 17

18 300mm Equipment Market, Capital $ Scenario B, 130nm Year 2005 (Degraded Case-Litho) 100% Clean Test % of Capital by Tool Group 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% LEL LEM OIC Product RTP PVD Metrology LowK_Track Lithography Inspect Implant Furnace Electroplate Etch / Strip CVD CMP 07/19/2000 5:09 PM j:\stndpres\template\intst.ppt - 18

19 Summary Analysis limited to time period of Some trends are not fully developed during this range Cost Resource Model provides the capability to create equipment profiles in a static environment Dynamic simulation is needed to model factory effects over time The Segmentation Model provides new equipment requirements and markets for multiple technology nodes, products and wafer sizes. 07/19/2000 5:09 PM j:\stndpres\template\intst.ppt - 19